Autocratization and the Dynamics of Pro-Governmental Counter-Mobilization: The 2024 Protests in Bangladesh

Abstract

There has been a developing interest in the mechanisms of how autocratizing regimes strategically mobilize loyalist groups to deter opposition, raise collective action costs, and signal regime strength. While the nexus of autocratization and pro-governmental mobilization is implicitly relevant to this strand of research, it has not been systematically analyzed yet. Autocratization may facilitate pro-governmental mobilization as a strategic tool for regime survival by increasing the costs of dissent and reinforcing state power through loyalist movements within civil society. This study explores the effect of autocratization on pro-governmental mobilization and thus contributes to the literature on autocratization, pro-governmental mobilization, and regime stability. It argues that processes of autocratization – involving the erosion of democratic state institutions and liberal public narratives, repression of political opposition, and limitation of citizen’s participation and rights of expression – intensifies contentious politics, as both dissidents and incumbents increasingly rely on non-institutionalized political means. The paper first develops an actor-centered and relational theory and then tests it on the case of Bangladesh during the 2024 anti-government and pro-democratic protests. In reaction to the protests violent state repression and pro-regime mobilization of groups like the Chhatra League (the student wing of the former governing political party Awami League) emerged to counter dissent. By investigating how autocratization drives pro-regime mobilization and shapes contentious politics this study contributes to closing critical gaps in the research as both state-mobilized movements and the effects of autocratization remain underexplored.